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Suu Kyi postpones planned political trip to Mandalay
Associated Press - 2 February 2012
Pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi has postponed a trip to Mandalay because she could not obtain permission to hold a political gathering at a football stadium there, a party official said Thursday. National League for Democracy leaders sought permission to use an open field under the administration of the Ministry of Sports, but no approval was given by Thursday evening, so the party decided to cancel Suu Kyi's planned trip.
 Derek Tonkin writes: The NLD have been pushing the limits of official tolerance, most recently through a supposedly non-campaigning visit to Magway Region at the invitation of the UK and Australian Embassies in Myanmar. This visit has also aroused controversy among the wider diplomatic and NGO community in Myanmar because not all organisations engaged in the "LIFT" project were reportedly invited.
Any leader of a political party, whether USDP, NUP, NLD, NDF or SNDP, to name the major  political parties, accepting an invitation at election time to such a high-profile visit, might well be perceived by the authorities as engaged in some form of electioneering, particularly if treated as a photo-opportunity. It is incumbent on diplomatic missions not to give the impression of supporting a particular political party at election time - see Article 41(1) of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, to which both the UK and Myanmar have acceded.
UK International Development Secretary on political prisoners
 Hansard Hourse of Commons - 1 February 2012
International Development Secretary Andrew Mitchell told the House of Commons on 1 February 2012: "The fact that the regime in Burma has now released nearly all its political prisoners - particularly Min Ko Naing whom many Members campaigned to see released - is an enormously encouraging sign."
Derek Tonkin writes: Foreign Secretary William Hague however is pressing for "the release of all political prisoners in time for the by-elections on 1 April".
Myanmar owes US$ 11 billion in foreign debt
Associated Press - 1 February 2012
Finance Minister Hla Tun told Parliament on 31 January that, as Myanmar makes reforms and expands its international relations, it has begin discussions on debt with multilateral institutions and donor nations, including Japan and Italy. Hla Tun said $8.4 billion in debt dated from the socialist regime of the late Gen. Ne Win between 1962-1988 and $2.61 billion debt was incurred after a military junta took over in 1988, making a total of $11.023 billion.
He said the pre-1988 debt represented bilateral loans and borrowing from multilateral institutions that the government was unable to repay because loans and grants were stopped after the 1988 pro-democracy uprising. Available revenue at the time went into development projects. The largest creditor before 1988 is Japan, with loans of $6.39 billion, he said, and the biggest post-1988 creditor is China with $2.13 billion.
Derek Tonkin comments: Myanmar has a low debt-to-GDP ratio of about 25% (US$ 11.023 billion debt to US$ 42.953 billion GDP). With gross official reserves estimated at some US$ 6.230 billion, this is a relatively tolerable situtation. However, revenue collection is very low by international standards.
Burma's Ethnic Ceasefire Agreements: Briefing Paper No. 1 - January 2012
Burma Centre for Peace and Reconciliation - A new bi-monthly series
Myanmar rice shipments may double this year
Bloomberg - 31 January 2012
Rice exports from Myanmar may more than double to 1.5 million metric tons this year, the Myanmar Rice Industry Association forecast, highlighting the country’s potential to boost overseas trade as its government pursues reform. As the government starts to purchase production at above-market prices to encourage greater planting, shipments may increase to as much as 2 million tons next year and reach 3 million tons by 2015, according to the Association. Sales totaled 700,000 tons in 2011.
An advance in exports may bolster global stockpiles, while boosting competition for Thailand, Vietnam and India. The projected gain may make Myanmar the world’s sixth-largest shipper this year, with volumes at the highest level since the 1960s, when the country was the world’s largest exporter, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Europe seeks to maintain the pressure on Burma 
Agence France-Presse - 31 January 2012
European Union leaders on Monday urged Burma’s leaders to continue reforms and pledged to further ease sanctions if the regime meets the bloc’s expectations. “I welcome the important changes taking place in Burma and encourage its government to maintain its determination to continue on the path of reform,” EU president Herman Van Rompuy said in a statement after a summit in Brussels. These changes are opening up important new prospects for developing the relationship between the European Union and Burma. I look forward to further progress in the coming weeks, in particular the further release of political prisoners, free and fair elections, and halting ethnic conflicts.”
Separately British Prime Minister David Cameron said it was possible he could visit Burma, following a series of visits by senior western officials including US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Cameron said he would “keep all options open” when asked if would visit the country, but said that Aung San Suu Kyi was on an “extremely busy schedule with these elections and everything else coming up.”
"In Burma, Aung Sang Suu Kyi has for years been an inspiration to her people and the world. Britain has supported her at every stage and been at the forefront of EU sanctions. Now there are signs of a new moment of opportunity for democracy and we should be prepared to relax these sanctions, but only in stages and in response to reforms. When I spoke to Aung Sang Suu Kyi on Saturday, she emphasised the importance of credible and free by-elections in April. I assure the House that we will be watching them very closely."
Time for talk on sanctions is over
The Myanmar Times - 30 January - 5 February 2012
Aung Tun, a research fellow with the policy think-tank Myanmar Egress, comments: "I don’t want to say that the sanctions policy has failed or even been counterproductive; instead I would say it didn’t work out as intended. For instance, while business tycoons targeted by sanctions - along with their sons, daughters and other relatives - have enjoyed access to quality education and healthcare abroad, and even the chance to shop in Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand, the majority of the population has seen almost every service provided by the government deteriorate. They have been largely unaffected by the sanctions, while we have suffered not only because of sanctions but also the mismanagement that prompted the sanctions to be put in place. This has exacerbated inequality in our society. It seems almost as if the carrot has been applied to the cronies and the stick to the poor."
Derek Tonkin writes: I agree. This explains why those who apply sanctions against Myanmar have never dared issue an independent public assessment of their effectiveness.
Burma reforms: Foreigners can't take much credit
Andrew Selth: The Lowry Interpreter - 30 January 2012
A companion piece to "Assessing Burma's reform program" as well as to David Steinberg's "Myanmar: On claiming success". Andrew Selth concludes: "For the best way to consolidate recent changes and encourage further reform is to help make the current process successful. There will still be differences of view (for example, over the 2008 constitution) and the provision of large-scale assistance to Burma will pose its own challenges. But for the time being, the aims of the government, the opposition movement and the international community appear to be broadly aligned."
Fragile peace in the Golden Land - Visit of Norway's FM
Aftenbladet - 27 January 2012
Translated extract: Foreign Minister Jonas Gahr Støre was clearly touched by his visit to the fragile country, and realizes that it is a formidable task to bring Myanmar into the world community. "Yes, there has to be much political groundwork here. But if there is anything that makes me, if not optimistic, at least hopeful, it's the recognition of the reality I have heard during all my discussions."
Myanmar has just started (as a tourist destination). In Yangon this is easy to see. Tourists are more visible than before, it is easier to get press visas. "One of the major challenges when they open up is that there will be a rush of tourists, and this is mostly good. But there will also be an influx of investors, organizations and the entire spectrum. If not handled properly, it could almost make matters worse."
A trio of articles by Elliott Prasse-Freeman on "Whither Burma?"
Elliott Prasse-Freeman is Founding Research Associate Fellow, HR+SM Program, and Advisory Board Member, Sexuality, Gender, and HR Program at Harvard Kennedy School.
Burma has shown progress to move towards democracy
Senate Floor statement by Senator McConnell - 26 January 2012
Extract: "I want to briefly address my colleagues on a very important trip I took recently to a country that, for much of the past 50 years, has ranked among the world’s most isolated and oppressed by its own government. Many of us wondered if things would ever change in Burma. But after my recent visit, I’m pleased to say that change is clearly in the air.
“It appears that Burma has made more progress toward democracy in the past six months than it has in decades. As one who has taken a strong interest in Burma for over 20 years, and as the lead author in this chamber of an annual sanctions bill aimed at encouraging the Burmese government to reform, this is welcome news."
Derek Tonkin writes: Senator McConnell also stated that Suu Kyi's party "won 80% of the vote in a free and fair election in 1990." In fact the National League for Democracy won only 52% of all votes cast (59% of all valid votes) in an election which on the actual day was as free and fair as the November 2010 elections, but which The New York Times had described prior to voting day as "a particularly unconvincing variety of Burmese puppet show" and whose likely integrity as a free and fair election The Economist had dismissed "as a macabre joke".
Davos 2012: Video Address by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi
Text of the address delivered in Davos on 26 January 2012
In her message, she called on the world community to support the Burmese people’s efforts to truly democratize their country and to all them to make a contribution to global affairs. “A year on (from last year’s audio message), I can say we have taken steps toward meeting those challenges,” Suu Kyi said. “We are not yet at the point of a great transformation, but we have a rare and extremely precious opportunity to reach such a point.” She emphasized that “an important step that will take us nearer to a truly revolutionary breakthrough will be the inclusion of all relevant political forces in the electoral and legislative processes of our country.”
Suu Kyi addresses the World Economic Forum in Davos - The Wall Street Journal
Symbolically significant: the presence in Davos this year of Industry Minister U Soe Thein, which Suu Kyi described as a “sign of the positive changes that have been taking place in our country.” In apologizing for not being able to attend the gathering in person, Suu Kyi explained that she is currently occupied with preparing her party to contest by-elections on April 1, which will be the NLD’s first chance to seek a role in government since it won a majority in the parliamentary elections of 1990, a victory that the military regime refused to recognize.
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Agence France-Presse - 25 January 2011
The International Monetary Fund
has published its analysis of Myanmar for the first time since 1999, applauding recent reforms but stressing the need to move further to stabilize the economy. It said Myanmar's economy, coming out a long period of stifled activity under an autocratic military regime, would grow about 5.5 percent this fiscal year, ending in March, and 6.0 percent the next. But it said reforming the "complex" exchange rate system is a top priority, and that will need to come with other broad adjustments and management reforms to maintain macroeconomic stability.
"The new government is facing a historic opportunity to jump-start the development process and lift living standards," the head of the IMF mission to Myanmar said in a statement at the conclusion of its annual Article IV Consultations.
US hopeful on sanctions, but action may be slow
Reuters - 24 January 2012
U.S. sanctions, launched in 1988 and expanded by five laws and four presidential directives, could prove tough to unravel quickly as the Obama administration monitors whether Myanmar genuinely embraces democracy, promotes civil liberties and ends strife with ethnic groups. "We're looking at it. We're reviewing right now what's available to the president, what's available to Congress, what makes the most sense," said Democratic Senator John Kerry, who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. "I think we have to take some measures in response to what is happening over there. But I don't think anybody's yet decided on exactly what the sequencing is."
Derek Tonkin writes: The Myanmar economy, in desperate need of capacity and restructuring, faces its toughest test in the intransigence of US congressional politics, the complexities of US sanctions legislation and the inertia of the US democratic system in this presidential election year. There are no votes to be won on Myanmar policy, so no politician is likely to feel inclined to take political risks in this context. On the other hand, the opportunity for grandstanding is not to be missed.
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Norwegian companies "readying for Burma"
Democratic Voice of Burma - 24 January 2012
Norway’s foreign minister will head to Burma soon to continue to push for reform in the country, and says the changing landscape there could turn looming Norwegian investment into a constructive force that can integrate Burma into the global economy. The government in Norway announced last week that it would drop sanctions on Burma, although it continues to align itself with remaining EU sanctions on the country. Foreign Minister Jonas Gahr Støre told DVB in an interview that the country would now push for “normal relations” with Naypyidaw. This will include “investment, jobs, welfare … [and] integration of Myanmar [Burma] into the international economy,” he said, adding that “Norwegian companies should start preparing for that”. Støre said that Norwegian officials would soon hold a roundtable on responsible investment in the country.
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