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IMF releases 2011 Article IV Consultation Report  International Monetary Fund - May 2012 Key policy issues and recommendations: Priorities are establishing the market infrastructure for the planned move to a managed float, and monetary and foreign exchange policy capacity to complement plans to unify the exchange rates. Financial sector modernization remains essential to support the reform process and improve financial intermediation. Fiscal policy priorities include ending deficit monetization, reprioritizing spending, and increasing nonresource revenues for development spending within a medium-term fiscal framework. Structural reforms should aim to increase agricultural productivity, and foster private sector development.
Myanmar Budget FY 2012-2013 (in Burmese)
Latest News and Comment
Myanmar poised to let in foreign banks
The Wall Street Journal - 23 March 2012 Myanmar is likely to allow foreign banks into the country by 2015 and will also pass a new foreign investment law in the coming months, a senior official at Myanmar's biggest commercial bank said Friday. U Than Lwin, deputy chairman of KBZ Bank and a former deputy governor of the Central Bank of Myanmar, said he also believes Myanmar's central bank will likely cut interest rates because rates in the country are higher than in neighboring Southeast Asian nations. U Than Lwin was speaking at an investment seminar in Bangkok. Despite changes, Mr. U Than Lwin said "it will be in the interests of foreigners to wait for the final touches on these laws" [banking and foreign investment] before rushing into the country.
Bangladesh prevails in maritime boundary dispute with Myanmar Myanmar nearing currency float in major shift
Japan 'to resume Myanmar loans' after 25 years  Agence France-Presse - 24 February 2012 Tokyo hopes to reach an agreement with Myanmar on a conditional resumption of development loans - to be used for infrastructure projects such as ports and railways - at a summit in late April, the Nikkei newspaper has reported. Japan has made no new official yen loans to Myanmar since a military coup and fierce crackdown at the end of the 1980s, which came amid mounting fears in Tokyo over huge unpaid arrears the Southeast Asian nation had already built up. Unlike major Western nations, Japan has maintained trade ties and dialogue with Myanmar, warning that a hard line on the ruling junta could push it closer to neighbouring China, its main political supporter and commercial partner. Myanmar's Asian allies, among them Thailand as well as China, already have a foot in the door and their firms are involved in hydropower, port and gas pipeline projects. Derek Tonkin writes: Outstanding debts to Japan are said to total US$6.39 billion out of a total overseas indebtedness of US$ 11.02 billion. Foreign exchange reserves are estimated at US$ 7.20 billion, and rising, while annual GDP is in the region of US$ 50.20 billion. The debt to GDP ratio is accordingly about 25%, which is tolerable for a developing country. The Japanese relationship with Burma might be appreciated through Kon Ichikawa's 1956 B/W film classic "The Burmese Harp". Special Report: Myanmar declares a war on opium  Reuters - 29 February 2012 Chopping down opium poppies is the easy part. Helping former poppy-growing families develop alternative crops and livelihoods is complicated and costly. In Afghanistan, on the other side of the Himalayas, opium production is so vast and sophisticated that it resembles a legitimate agribusiness in some areas. But in Myanmar, poppies are produced mainly by subsistence farmers who depend upon the cash opium generates to buy food. About 256,000 households are involved in opium poppy cultivation, the UNODC estimates. The opium yield from an acre (a third of a hectare) of Myanmar poppy is worth about $1,000. That's a life-saving sum of money in Myanmar, where a third of its 60 million people live on a dollar a day. Stiglitz sees progress on Myanmar currency regime  The Wall Street Journal - 16 February 2012 In meetings with officials, economist and Nobel Prize winner Joseph Stiglitz told WSJ: "They made it very clear that they are headed for foreign-exchange-rate unification," and it appeared the issue was "being dealt with fairly quickly." There was already evidence that the country's currency was overvalued, even at the unofficial rate, echoing complaints made by Myanmar exporters over the past year who have said a flood of investment related to natural resources has helped push the kyat higher. Mr. Stiglitz said he felt confident Myanmar's government was serious about other reforms, as well. He also indicated he supports the lifting of sanctions, which he says "would help" by bringing in more companies "with good corporate responsibility rules," which could help boost economic growth while minimizing problems associated with environmental degradation and other issues linked to underregulated development.
Associated Press - 1 February 2012
Finance Minister Hla Tun told Parliament on 31 January that, as Myanmar makes reforms and expands its international relations, it has begin discussions on debt with multilateral institutions and donor nations, including Japan and Italy. Hla Tun said $8.4 billion in debt dated from the socialist regime of the late Gen. Ne Win between 1962-1988 and $2.61 billion debt was incurred after a military junta took over in 1988, making a total of $11.023 billion. He said the pre-1988 debt represented bilateral loans and borrowing from multilateral institutions that the government was unable to repay because loans and grants were stopped after the 1988 pro-democracy uprising. Available revenue at the time went into development projects. The largest creditor before 1988 is Japan, with loans of $6.39 billion, he said, and the biggest post-1988 creditor is China with $2.13 billion. Derek Tonkin comments: Myanmar has a low debt-to-GDP ratio of about 25% (US$ 11.023 billion debt to US$ 42.953 billion GDP). With gross official reserves recently estimated at some US$ 7.20 billion, this is a relatively tolerable situtation. However, revenue collection is very low by international standards. Myanmar rice shipments may double this year
IMF applauds Myanmar reforms Agence France-Presse - 25 January 2011 The International Monetary Fund has published its analysis of Myanmar for the first time since 1999, applauding recent reforms but stressing the need to move further to stabilize the economy. It said Myanmar's economy, coming out a long period of stifled activity under an autocratic military regime, would grow about 5.5 percent this fiscal year, ending in March, and 6.0 percent the next. But it said reforming the "complex" exchange rate system is a top priority, and that will need to come with other broad adjustments and management reforms to maintain macroeconomic stabilit "The new government is facing a historic opportunity to jump-start the development process and lift living standards," the head of the IMF mission to Myanmar said in a statement at the conclusion of its annual Article IV Consultations.
The time has come for economic reform in Myanmar Pacific Forum CSIS Honolulu - 12 January 2012 Brad Babson, former World Bank official and UN Consultant on Myanmar, argues that nothing will advance the interests of the people of Myanmar more than sensible economic reforms coupled with a commitment to respect their rights of citizenship under national law. Ramping up humanitarian and development assistance is not the answer, although such resources can be helpful. What matters is a domestically motivated and managed economic reform drive that taps all good ideas and reinforces collaboration between the government, private sector, civil society and the international community.
Despite reforms, Western oil firms avoid Myanmar Reuters - 24 November 2011 A Reuters survey of European and Asian firms showed that global majors such as Total SA, which already leads the $1 billion Yadana gas project in Myanmar waters in the Andaman Sea, would not take part in a recent tender. Christophe de Margerie, the French major's CEO, said last month Total would like to play a bigger role in the Southeast Asian country but wanted to first see concrete signs of increased democratisation. Myanma Oil and Gas Enterprise (MOGE) data showed Myanmar has 115 million barrels of onshore and 100 million barrels of offshore proven oil reserves. The proven onshore gas reserves are 400 billion cubic feet and offshore are 16 trillion cubic feet. BP Statistical Review figures showed that Myanmar's proven gas reserves tripled in the past decade to around 800 billion cu m (28 tcf), equivalent to more than a quarter of Australia's. This compares with China's proven oil reserves of 14.8 billion barrels, Malaysia's 5.8 billion, Vietnam's 4.4 billion and Indonesia's 4.2 billion barrels, at the end of 2010, according to the BP Statistical Review. Note by Network Myanmar: Proven oil reserves of 215 million barrels and proven gas reserves of 28 trillion cubic feet compare with overall estimates by MOGE of roughly 3.2 billion barrels of oil reserves and 89 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves. IMF visits Myanmar on Article VIII (international transactions) mission The Myanmar Times - 31 October - 6 November 2011 IMF mission chief Ms Meral Karasulu said: “This mission … is mostly of a diagnostic nature, to begin preliminary work to identify the legal framework and actual practices governing the current exchange system, including the multiple exchange rate system and the exchange restrictions on current international payments. The authorities requested this mission as part of their plans to unify the exchange rate and accept the Article VIII of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement." Myanmar seeks coordination with IMF to adjust exchange rate - Xinhua 1 November 2011 Statement at the conclusion of the IMF Article VIII mission to Myanmar - 1 November 2011 FDI must move beyond resources The Myanmar Times - 10-16 October 2011 “[Investment in Myanmar] is based on natural resources and the environment, that’s not good for the long term obviously, they do not encourage development of the economy,” said economist U Han Htun who is also a columnist with Commerce Journal. At present, the majority of this investment in Myanmar comes from neighbouring countries and offers little in terms of technology transfer or job opportunities, with some investors bringing their own workers, even unskilled labours, he said. An official of the Union of Myanmar Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry (UMFCCI) told The Myanmar Times that FDI is important to develop over the long-term, that the government needs to encourage investment into manufacturing to bring greater technology and job opportunities. The $20 billion in 2010 proved the exception to the mere millions of previous years; 2009-10 reached $329 million, while 2008-09 was $984 million, according to Central Statistical Organization (CSO) figures. World Bank 2011 Annual Meeting. Statement by Myanmar World Bank - 23 September 2011 The Governor of the Bank for Myanmar, U Hla Tun, tells the Annual Meeting that Myanmar "expects an economic growth of 8.8% in the Fiscal Year to end March 2012. Growth will be mainly in the agricultural sector and the services sector." Myanmar's forgotten bourse eyes long-awaited expansion Reuters - 21 September 2011 Report of the Sixth Visit to the Yadana Pipeline Project Union Minister for Finance sets out plans for exchange rate unification Construction of China-Myanmar Railway could start in December National Workshop on Economic Development - 19-21 August 2011
This paper, written in May 2011, was presented by Econmic Adviser U Myint at the recent Economic Forum in Nay Pyi Taw. It seeks to explain the exchange rate appreciation of the Kyat, proposes measures to deal with the problem and looks at prospects in the current situation to unify the exchange rate. Other papers presented at the Forum include:
Asia's best performing currency weighs on Burma's rulers - Forbes 24 August 2011 Western complaints hurt Myanmar Myanmar to coordinate with IMF in adjusting forex rate Myanmar currency crunch cripples exporters, risks crisis Summary of National Budget allocations 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 Poverty in Myanmar fell from 32% in 2004-5 to 26% in 2009-10
New Light of Myanmar - 7 June 2011 A recent workshop in Nay Pyi Taw attended by aid agencies has concluded that poverty has been considerably alleviated in Myanmar in recent years - a reduction from 32% to 26%. UNDP Discussion Paper: Illicit Financial Outlflows from LDCs 1990-2008 UNDP - 12 May 2011 Myanmar listed 9th among 48 recognised LDCs at US$ 8.535 billion or 9.13% of annual GDP. Ratio IFO:ODA estimated at 4.7:1 for Myanmar. Comment by Network Myanmar: This is a discussion paper reflecting the personal views of the authors. Trade mispricing is reportedly the main cause of IFOs. Myanmar has a complex exchange rate system. ODA is also only a fraction of what e.g. Laos and Cambodia receive. Myanmar estimates 3.2 billion barrels oil and 89.722 tcf gas reserves Eleven News.com - 12 April 2011
The Myanmar Ministry of Energy estimates oil reserves in Myanmar at about 3.2 billion barrels and natural gas reserves at about 89.722 trillion cubic feet. At present annual production of is about 7 million barrels of crude oil and 439 billion cubic feet of natural gas. Comment by Network Myanmar: At the present rate of extraction, reserves could last well into the next century. Even as reserves come on stream and are exploited commerically, and exports rise significantly, the oil and gas extraction industry in Myanmar would seem to have a bright, longer-term future. The figures for proven and recoverable reserves in the oil and gas industry vary considerably, but are substantially less than the above estimates. Xinhua quotes recoverable reserves at 18.012 tcf out of 89.722 tcf estimated. Trade Volume in Fiscal Year 2010-2011 (to end March) to jump 12% The renovation of the "Burma Road" between China and India - 2009 Myanmar halts rice exports
Wall Street Journal - 3 March 2011 Traders said Myanmar's no doubt temporary ban came after local prices of some rice grades there rose by around 15% last month, partly due to an increase in fuel prices. Myanmar remains a relatively small player in the global rice trade, exporting up to a million tons a year in a global export market of about 30 million tons. Rice prices have stayed relatively low compared with other grains this year, and traders don't currently expect the crop's export powerhouses, including Thailand and Vietnam, to announce major limits on their exports. Myanmar Times - 7-13 February 2011
Details of the Special Economic Zone (SEZ) which came into effect on 27 January 2011 and is designed to encourage investment in the light manufacturing industry. Report on the SEZ Law in Mizzima of 17 February 2011 Reuters - 20 January 2011
Myanmar is in preliminary talks with Korea Exchange, South Korea's bourse operator, about opening a stock market, the latest in a series of steps by its military rulers aimed at drawing much-needed foreign capital to the country. Dawei development stirs debate Myanmar Times - 14-20 February 2011 The 250-square-kilometre project will be built by Italian-Thai Development Company (ITD) at Kappali Bay, about 32 kilometres (20 miles) northwest of Dawei. The company signed a 60-year build, operate and transfer agreement with the government on November 2 that is expected to cost US$58 billion, an ITD press release says. Mr Surin Vichian, ITD’s project manager for the Dawei development, cautioned that the port was still in the planning stage, adding that Phase One will involve building infrastructure for the site and will cost $8 billion. “We will need to build infrastructure from scratch such as roads, bridges and jetties,” he said. A District Peace and Development Committee (DDDC) official confirmed that construction work is yet to begin: “The deepsea port is just a plan to show off at present and no digging or work has started in the project area.” “As far as I know, ITD has not yet gathered enough finance for this project but will build the road from here to Thailand first to encourage investment in the project,” the DDDC official added. However, in an interview with the International Herald Tribune in November, an ITD official said the company had already secured funding from a private bank that he was not prepared to name. Mr Surin said one of the key tasks in the first five-year phase was to build a road to the Thai border, a distance of about 160 kilometres (100 miles). Dawei project to be harmonized with SEZ Law. "Burma to privatise 90% of its companies"
BBC News 14 January 2011 Mark Gregory reports that the government intends to privatise 90% of State-owned companies by the end of the year.
Note by Network Myanmar: The privatisation of State-owned enterprises has been under way for some time. When it began some years ago, there were few buyers, but it would seem that Burmese oligarchs, as in Russia and elsewhere in the transition from State to private ownership, are likely to acquire the majority of the assets. This may lack morality, but in the longer run entrepreneurs were likely to acquire former State assets in any case. National Unity Party and National League for Democracy comment Clothing industry picks up in Myanmar
ATN - 10 January 2011 During the past six months, the number of clothing factories in Myanmar has increased from about 120 factories to more than 200, according to the Myanmar Clothing Manufacturers’ Association. As a result of the global economic crisis, only about 120 clothing factories in Myanmar were operating in 2009, but since June 2010, the growing demand for clothing has caused many factories to reopen and also attracted investors to create more factories. Before mid-2009, there were 171 clothing factories in Myanmar. Note by Network Myanmar: The embargo imposed by the US in 2003 resulted in many redundancies and factory closures. This was also exacerbated by the ending of the Multi-Fibre Agreement. Since then, however, there seems to have been a welcome recovery. Turkey, South Korea and Japan are thought to be prominent new buyers. Wages in Myanmar are very competitive compared with other Asian countries. "China outward bound through Myanmar" Asia Times - 8 January 2011 Brian McCartan discusses the planned development of Myanmar as a North-South, East-West rail hub linking neighbouring countries. Sinopec finds oil and gas deposits in Myanmar Reuters - 7 January 2011
Sinopec International Petroleum (SIPC) has discovered proven reserves of 909 billion cubic feet of gas and 7.16 million barrels of condensate in central Myanmar, state media reported on 7 January. Myanmar and China have agreed a deal on the sale of gas from the country’s two biggest blocks in Rakhine, known as A-1 and A-3, which have proven reserves of up to 10 trillion cubic feet, with up to 8.6 TCF recoverable. Official data shows Myanmar exported US$2.38 billion of gas, mainly to Thailand, during its 2008-2009 fiscal year (April-March) and US$2.52 billion a year later. The latest data shows Myanmar exported gas worth US$1.2 billion in the first half of the current fiscal year. Trade volume to beat FY 2009-2010 total Myanmar Times - 3-9 January 2011 Trade turnover for the nine months to 31 December 2011 has already passed US$ 9 billion and is on course to exceed by 31 March 2011 the US$ 11.7 billion total for the FY to 31 March 2010 1. Myanmar pipeline to diversify energy sources 'Finding dollars, sense and legitimacy in Burma' Good Economists needed for Parliament Miscellaneous Reports
Wall Street Journal - 31 July 2010
Myanmar Times - 7-13 June 2010
LiveMint.com - 10 May 2010
AFP/Yahoo - 3 March 2010
AFP/Yahoo - 23 February 2010
The Hindu Business Line - 18 February 2010
Bangkok Post - 8 February 2010
Reuters (India) - 3 February 2010
UNIC Yangon - 28 January 2010
Myanmar Times - 4-10 January 2010
Xinhua (Yangon) - 10 January 2010
ESCAP - 21 December 2009
The Times of India - 21 December 2009
Xinhua (Yangon) - 22 November 2009
Deutsche Presse-Agentur - 15 November 2009
Deutsche Presse-Agentur - 8 November 2009
Alexander's gas and oil connection - 16 October 2009
Reuters - 25 August 2009
Xinhua News Agency - 18 August 2009
Xinhua - 10 August 2009
Xinhua - 10 August 2009
Channel News Asia - 17 July 2009
Mizzima - 10 July 2009
Mizzima - 6 July 2009
The Wall Street Journal - 19 June 2009
Myanmar Times - 1-7 June 2009cc
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Mizzima News - 28 May 2009
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The Wall StreetJounrnal - 28 May 2009
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Straits Times/AP - 20 March 2009 ccc
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Xinhua Net - 4 March 2009ooooo
Reuters - 12 February 2009
The Irrawaddy - 23 January 2009oooo
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Workshop on Rurak Development and Poverty Alleviation: Nay Pyi Taw Paper by U Myint, Economic Adviser to the Government - May 2011 UNESCAP Summary Report for 2010-211 A brief note on the performance of the Burmese economy in FY to end March 2011. ADB Asian Economic Outlook for 2011-2012 Three page summary analysis of recent and likely future trends Data provided by DG Trade European Commission as at 18 January 2011
Data provided by DG Trade European Commission as at 18 January 2011
An eight page statistical review of the main economic and financial indicators.
Statistics on trade, investment and tourism with ASEAN, China and Japan
Investment in Myanmar Natural Resources by Chinese Multinational Companies
Data from the CSO of the Ministry of National Planning and Economic Development
A supplement to the Staff Report for the 2007 Article IV Consultation with Myanmar
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A supplement to the Staff Report for the 2007 Article IV Consultation with Myanmar
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A brief analysis of economic performance during 2008 and of prospects for the future.ooooo
A detailed factual and statistical analysis of the Burmese political economy. oooo
A nine page statistical review of the main economic and financial indicators. PDF formatoooo
IMF data on Myanmar from 2004 to 2007 with 2008 Estimates. XLS formatooooo
Minister for National Planning and Economic Development U Soe Tha - 3 October 2007
This special report by the US Institute of Peace examines the economy of Myanmar at a crucial moment. The full report may be downloaded from this link.
Helen James examines the economics-politics nexus in Thailand and Myanmar in the context of rent-seeking, revenues from oil and gas resources and possible political reform.
The paper provides a brief analysis of the main stakeholders and highlight issues that will require continued attention and further concerted international engagement on behalf of the people of Myanmar. ooo
A podcast from a pub in the East End of London, in Petticoat Lane district close to the haunts of Jack The Ripper. An informal chat between Toby Webb of the Ethical Corporation and Derek Tonkin.ooo
The paper presents the current state of Burma's economy, and explore the reforms that will be necessary in the event of political change. A Burma Economic Watch study by Sean Turnell.o
An IMF Working Paper by Masahiro Hiro and Yu Ching Wong - August 2008
Southeast Asia Research Centre - City University of Hong Kong : June 2005
Stephen Frost and Mary Ho
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A managed float would help private exporters, whose goods have become less competitive as the informal market rate for the kyat appreciated to about 800 this year from 1,300 in 2006, the fastest gains in Southeast Asia, 
Special Themes
• International Crisis Group• Google Map of Yangon
• Myanmar CSO Statistics
• ILO in Myanmar
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